As agents prepare for the 2027 Medicare Annual Enrollment Period, new projections from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services point to a Medicare Advantage market that remains large and competitive—even as carriers continue adjusting their footprints and plan offerings.
According to Becker’s Payer Issues, CMS projects Medicare Advantage enrollment of approximately 34 million people in 2027, representing about 47.4% of the Medicare population.
At the same time, the weighted average monthly Medicare Advantage premium is projected to decline.
CMS projects the weighted average monthly premium across Medicare Advantage plans will decrease from $14.37 in 2026 to $12.00 in 2027—a decline of approximately 16.5%.
For Medicare Advantage plans that include prescription drug coverage, the average monthly Part D total premium after rebates is projected to decline from $11.32 to $7.00.
CMS also expects supplemental benefits such as dental, vision and hearing to remain broadly stable for 2027.
The national picture suggests continued affordability and access. More than 99% of Medicare beneficiaries are expected to have access to at least one Medicare Advantage plan, while 97% are expected to have 10 or more choices.
View the CMS 2027 Medicare Advantage and Part D announcement
For agents, national averages only tell part of the story.
CMS expects approximately 5,532 Medicare Advantage plans nationwide in 2027, compared with 5,553 in 2026. But plan availability, premiums and carrier participation can vary considerably by state, county and service area.
That makes local market analysis especially important heading into AEP.
A client may see little change in premium while experiencing changes to provider networks, prescription drug coverage, cost sharing or supplemental benefits. Another client may discover that a familiar plan is no longer available in their county.
We recently looked more closely at these market changes in Medicare Advantage in 2027: Fewer Plans, New Challenges.
Lower average premiums should not reduce the importance of conducting a thorough annual plan review.
Agents should pay particular attention to:
Approximately eight in 10 Medicare Advantage beneficiaries are expected to be able to remain in their current plan with the same or a lower premium, according to CMS. That still leaves a meaningful portion of the market where changes may warrant a closer review.
The 2027 landscape reinforces the value of having access to multiple carriers and understanding the differences between plans available in each market.
A lower national average premium does not necessarily mean a simpler selling season. In many cases, agents will need to help clients look beyond the headline numbers and understand how individual plan changes affect their coverage.
Independent agents can prepare by reviewing their carrier portfolio, completing certifications early and becoming familiar with the 2027 plan landscape in the counties they serve.
PSM Brokerage provides independent agents with access to a broad range of Medicare Advantage, Medicare Supplement and Part D solutions, along with contracting, certification, marketing and enrollment support.
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